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He’s gotten fat and happy because of his new contract extension. Yeah, but why has he played so well on offense? Anyway, the contract is full of incentives, so he can’t just kick back and wait for the money to roll in.
He’s not actually doing terribly; fans’ expectations are just too high. We can call this the Lovie Theory. As the coach put it, “The type of career he has had so far, he assumes he is going to score every time he touches the football.” Unfortunately, the stats don’t bear it out. Not only has he not gone the distance, which could plausibly be a question of luck, his averages on punts and kicks are way down–near the bottom of the league, in fact. Who would have thought he’d be looking up in the leader board at Johnnie Lee Higgins and Yamon Figurs?
He’s lost it. Worst-case scenario, probably not the case, but look at Dante Hall, aka Devin Hester 1.0. From 2002-2005 he had nine returns for touchdowns on punt and kick returns (out of 286 combined opportunities). No one would kick anywhere in his zip code. In the three and a half seasons since then, however, he’s had only five touchdowns in 281 opportunities. He’s still good, but he doesn’t have the same flair. In this analysis, returning kicks is like pitching the ninth inning with a one-run lead; to use Hester’s own words, “either you’ve got it or you don’t.” Does he still have it?
