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Sabermetricians have made a credible argument against base stealing: an unsuccessful steal does more to discourage scoring than a successful swipe does to promote it. Specific to Henderson, the analysts at Baseball Prospectus posit in a chapter of Baseball Between the Numbers that Henderson’s steals did not significantly contribute to more wins for his teams since he was also caught stealing more times, 335, than any player in history. (Here Henderson echoes Cy Young, the all-time leader in wins, 511, and losses, 316). A Hall of Fame voter who focuses only on Henderson’s seemingly insurmountable steals record of 1,406 and not his total contribution–including his runs and walks marks and his 3,055 hits (practically a Hall of Fame lock, itself)–may not be so impressed.
Moreover, a player can’t steal if he isn’t on base. Henderson benefited from a consistently excellent on-base percentage–.401 for his career (56th all-time). That’s what comes of a solid .279 career batting average and the most unintentional walks, 2,129, in the history of baseball. And sabermetricians love walks and high on-base percentages, even if they eye steals with suspicion.
This list includes many of the greatest of the greats–Babe Ruth (Slugging %, OPS), Hank Aaron (RBI, Total Bases), Ty Cobb (Batting Average), Ted Williams (On-Base %), Walter Johnson (Shutouts), Nolan Ryan (Strikeouts, Hits/9 Inn.)–but no margin comes close to Henderson’s.
