Three things you can count on in the upcoming mayoral election—which isn’t until February but, let’s face it, is all anyone in town is talking about.

What’s that you say? You don’t think blacks will vote for a white candidate in a race against black candidates, even with an Obama endorsement? Please, you’re confusing blacks with whites. In Chicago, black voters have traditionally been more tolerant and open-minded than white ones. In 2003, for instance, alderman Thomas Murphy, running in the overwhelmingly black 18th Ward, took 81 percent of the vote, while his three black opponents got only 18 percent combined. But voters in a predominantly white ward have never elected a black alderman.

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Most voters in Chicago—especially north-siders—know very little about Meeks. But if he makes it to round two, they’ll learn a lot about him. They’ll hear, for instance, about the 2006 Halloween exhibit in the administrative offices of his church, Salem Baptist. Designed to “scare the hell out of teens,” the “Nights of Terror” featured some interesting displays, Cathleen Falsani then observed in the Sun-Times: “A fenced-in cell housed a few denizens of ‘hell,’ including a pedophile trolling the Internet for a young victim, a meditating Buddhist, and two mincing young men wearing body glitter who were supposed to be homosexuals.”

  • Number Three: A good number of the pols who say they’re running, or say they’re thinking about running, are blowing smoke.

My hunch is he won’t run this time either. If I’m right, we’ll be watching to see what it gets him.