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It’s not hard to figure out why: it grossed $45 million worldwide—about 35 times what the other four movies made combined. It’s the third highest-grossing documentary ever made, after Fahrenheit 9/11 and last year’s winner, March of the Penguins. That means more Academy voters have seen it, so the award is pretty much a foregone conclusion.
Compare that to Deliver Us From Evil, Amy Berg’s horrifying tale of a pedophile priest who preyed on children throughout the 70s and 80s as the diocese of Stockton, California, shuffled him around from one parish to the other. Berg tracked down the retired Father Oliver O’Grady in Dublin and elicited truly stomach-turning admissions from him. It’s not a tabloid movie — Berg presents some expert analysis of how the culture of the priesthood has encouraged abuses — but Berg has collected some wrenching moments from the victims and their families. This movie has the staying power of a Russian novel, and it deserves the Oscar.